Gearing Up for Holiday Growth

With the holiday season quickly approaching, well-positioned online retailers are expecting record sales numbers. The pandemic has created an unprecedented economic environment and many physical retailers have faced big headwinds throughout the year. On the other hand, e-commerce focused businesses have largely coasted through the year on tailwinds. Identifying those tailwinds and removing limiting factors in your online store is vital to capturing market share in what is set to be a blockbuster season. 

According to Deloitte, holiday retail sales this year should rise 1 to 1.5 percent, amounting to a staggering $1.147 trillion to $1.152 trillion from November to January. Deloitte also forecasts that e-commerce sales will grow by 25 percent to 35 percent year-over-year this season, compared to 14.7 percent in 2019. Ecommerce holiday sales are expected to generate between $182 billion and $196 billion this season, compared to $135 billion in 2019. 

“The lower projected holiday growth this season is not surprising given the state of the economy. While high unemployment and economic anxiety will weigh on overall retail sales this holiday season, reduced spending on pandemic-sensitive services such as restaurants and travel may help bolster retail holiday sales somewhat,” said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s U.S. economic forecaster. “Ecommerce is likely to be a big winner because consumers have shown a clear movement towards buying online rather than at brick and mortar stores.”  

The pandemic created the perfect storm for e-commerce growth this year. Stay-at-home orders pushed historically resistant online shoppers to begin ordering necessities like groceries from online platforms, which also pushed companies to quickly adapt to the new shopping behaviors. Furloughs increased personal time to browse online stores. Closed businesses in the entertainment sector, leisure, and travel forced many to save more than usual. This has resulted in new online consumers, better informed consumers, and consumers with more time to compare prices online. 

Companies best positioned to take advantage of this positive outlook will have a few things in common: scalability, optimization, and speed.  According to a MediaPost publication, the latest GfK Consumer Pulse Report has found that 44 percent of U.S. consumers expect to buy exclusively online this holiday season, while only 17 percent say they will shop solely in brick-and-mortar outlets. The transition to shopping online has accelerated five years into the future in just a few short months. As online buying behavior remains strong, retailers that are not positioned to sell online during this holiday season are likely to be left behind.  

User experience and page speed are two factors that retailers must focus on if they want to separate themselves from the pack this holiday season. Companies that have heavily invested in their frontend user experience will capture a disproportionate amount of this new online consumer base. Better informed consumers have now been introduced to online retail mostly through the big players in the industry – Amazon, Instacart, Doordash – all companies that offer a tailor-made online shopping experience. New online consumers will have little patience for unaesthetic browsing experiences or clunky checkout processes moving forward. 

Retailers will also need to recognize the elephant in the room. Ecommerce brands have been in a silent arms race. Load speeds are king and those ignoring that fact will be left behind. Early adopters of speed-centric tech have seen massive gains in revenue. Progressive Web Applications (PWA) are becoming a necessity rather than a luxury. Time on page, pages per session, bounce rates, and average purchases are increasingly driven by speed statistics. 

The big takeaway is that none of these factors matter in a vacuum. Companies that have continued to invest in a more engaging user experience, adopted Progressive Web Applications early, and have stress tested their sites for the season will emerge victorious.